AAUs begin next week, with of course the USAV national championships following at the end of the month. Before teams start arriving in Chicago, we decided to take a look at the path for Open teams to get there to see if we could rank the toughest qualifiers. We kicked off with the 17s. Up next is 16 Open.

The method we used was hardly perfect and is relative of course. At the same time, it does shed light on what may be the toughest qualifier of the season. The factors we used to determine the list we came up with are 1) Number of eventual Open qualifiers; 2) Percent of Eventual Open qualifiers from the overall field; 3) The number of ranked teams from vballrecruiter.com’s Top 50; 4) the average rank of the teams from the Top 50. We took the average of those four rankings and listed them from 1-12 for each qualifier.

The full breakdown is below, with comments.

16 OPEN

LONE STAR (*Average: 3) (rank – 1)

Number of Teams: 41

Bids Available: 3

Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 9

Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 12 (overall rank – t1)*

Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 29 (overall rank – 5)*

Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 18 (overall rank – 2)*

Average Rank: 21 (overall rank – 4)*

Comment: Lone Star is always challenging because of the high volume of previously-qualified teams competing. This year, there were nine and it’s reason why only one bid went out, creating the only two at-larges in play this season. It’s not surprising to see Lone Star come out on top, not with 18 teams from the Top 50 with an average rank of 21. That’s impressive. And though the percent of eventual qualifiers wasn’t tops, it was still fifth-best overall.

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WINDY CITY (Avg: 3.25) (2)

Number of Teams: 32

Bids Available: 3

Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 4

Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 10 (t5)

Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 31 (3)

Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 12 (t4)

Average Rank: 18 (t1)

Comment: Windy City is right there pushing Lone Star as the top qualifier. This year’s event stood out by tying for the top average rank of Top-50 teams. There were 12 in attendance averaging out at 18. That’s strong competition, especially when the field slightly outranked Lone Star in terms of eventual Open qualifiers.

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SUNSHINE CLASSIC (Avg: 3.5) (3)

Number of Teams: 40

Bids Available: 3

Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 0

Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 12 (t1)

Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 30 (4)

Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 16 (3)

Average Rank: 24 (6)

Comment: Sunshine cracks the Top 3, close to Windy City and not far from Lone Star. The three qualifiers differed in terms of previously-qualified clubs. Lone Star had nine, meaning bids weren’t guaranteed to go out. Windy City had four, so trickle-down was likely. Meanwhile, Sunshine had no qualified teams being up first. Given there were 12 eventual Open teams competing and 16 from our Top 50 with an average rank of 24, qualifying at the event was no joke!

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MEQ (Avg: 4) (4)

Number of Teams: 48

Bids Available: 3

Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 3

Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 12 (t1)

Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 25 (t7)

Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 20 (1)

Average Rank: 26 (t7)

Comment: MEQ’s large field can work for it and against it. The pros is it allows for lots of eventual Open qualifiers (12) and teams from the Top 50 (20). But the con is it can hurt when it comes to the percent of eventual Open qualifiers (25), which comes in tied for seventh. That, and the average Top 50 rank of 26 (also seventh), kept MEQ from coming in higher. Still, it checks in as the fourth-toughest qualifier.

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RED ROCK RAVE (Avg: 4.25) (5)

Number of Teams: 40

Bids Available: 3

Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 0

Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 11 (4)

Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 28 (6)

Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 12 (t4)

Average Rank: 19 (3)

Comment: Like Sunshine, Red Rock had no wiggle room because there was no possibility of trickle down. There has to be extra consideration given to that as the average doesn’t take that into account. Helping carry Red Rock to a top-five qualifier was its average Top 50 rank of 19. That was third-best overall. Red Rock was also strong with 11 eventual Open qualifiers and 12 teams from the Top 50. Given that, just like Sunshine, earning bids here took serious work.

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NORTHERN LIGHTS (Avg: 4.5) (t6)

Number of Teams: 24

Bids Available: 3

Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 2

Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 9 (t7)

Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 38 (1)

Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 9 (9)

Average Rank: 18 (t1)

Comment: There are a couple of factors that really stand out. One is that Northern Lights tied for the highest Top-50 average at 18. That means there were some really good teams there. Also, with nine eventual qualifiers, it made for 38 percent of the field eventually qualifying. That was tops out of all qualifiers. So though Northern Lights was a smaller field compared to other qualifiers, it packed a punch!

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NEQ (Avg: 4.5) (t6)

Number of Teams: 27

Bids Available: 3

Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 6

Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 10 (t5)

Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 37 (2)

Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 11 (t6)

Average Rank: 22 (5)

Comment: NEQ has a reputation for not being among the stronger qualifiers, but the numbers show otherwise this season. With 37 percent of the field eventually making Open, it put NEQ second overall. That could mean there were more lower-ranked teams in the field, but NEQ had an average Top-50 rank of 22. That was fifth-best overall, meaning the field was strong.

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BIG SOUTH (Avg: 7.5) (8)

Number of Teams: 47

Bids Available: 3

Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 3

Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 9 (t7)

Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 19 (10)

Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 11 (t6)

Average Rank: 26 (t7)

Comment: What really hurt Big South was the percent of eventual Open qualifiers. It was low at 19 percent, which was 10th. That was caused by the big overall field, which was second only behind MEQ. With 11 teams from the Top 50 averaging out at 26 showed there was good competition there.

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PNQ (Avg: 9.25) (9)

Number of Teams: 24

Bids Available: 3

Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 0

Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 6 (9)

Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 25 (t7)

Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 6 (11)

Average Rank: 31 (10)

Comment: What caught my attention is there were no previously-qualified teams, which is unusual for PNQ. There isn’t a bunch, but usually there is one or two. So again, having to qualify without trickle down takes something. But it was a smaller field with not many Top-50 teams and a lower Top-50 ranking.

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SHOW ME (Avg: 9.5) (10)

Number of Teams: 30

Bids Available: 3

Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 2

Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 5 (t10)

Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 17 (t11)

Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 10 (8)

Average Rank: 29 (9)

Comment: Show Me is a good example of how stark a contrast there can be between age divisions at the same qualifier. In our 17 Open breakdown, Show Me wound up on top as the toughest qualifier. Yet, in 16 Open it lands at No. 10.

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SALT LAKE SHOWDOWN (Avg: 10.5) (11)

Number of Teams: 25

Bids Available: 3

Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 1

Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 5 (t10)

Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 20 (9)

Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 4 (12)

Average Rank: 32 (11)

Comment: There were few teams from the Top 50 in the field. And they averaged out to a lower rank as well.

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FAR WESTERN (Avg: 10.75) (12)

Number of Teams: 30

Bids Available: 3

Number of Previously-Qualified Teams: 2

Number of Eventual Open Qualifiers: 5 (t10)

Percent Eventually Qualified from Field: 17 (t11)

Number of Ranked Teams from vballrecruiter.com Top 50: 8 (10)

Average Rank: 39 (12)

Comment: As was the case with 17 Open at Far Western, being the last qualifier created plenty of drama in regards to the at-large picture. Yet, the numbers show it was not one of the stronger qualifiers.